A client asked me if I have access to historical stock prices by date. Most historical stock prices are done by symbol. This means, if the company crashed a few years back, you won't find the list of stock prices for the lifetime of the stock because the symbol is not listed anymore.
I never really paid too much attention to this, but analysis on this type of data is flawed because it carries the bias of stock survival. So if you are testing a hypothesis, you can't test against the failed or acquired companies. By default, the hypothesis will tend to be positive because the companies analysed survived without testing against the ones who failed.
any ideas where to get stock prices by date? Even Yahoo is by symbol.
I heard Ameritrade or another one has a way to do backward hypothesis testing. I wonder if they offer all the historical data even if the symbol is not listed anymore.
Got to get my hands on some of these relationships:
Reuters is a great data provider with great API:
https://customers.reuters.com/Home/RMDS.aspx
There is also amazing software by niche players focused on doing backward hypothesis verification.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Analytics changing markets irrationally by very rational decisions
New high prices paid for some office buildings is making people scratch their heads. The difference from a 75% occupancy and a 93% occupancy in buildings in Chicago was from $100 a square foot to $500 a square foot.
It seems that in the never ending search for new investment returns, they are looking at office buildings with high level of quality occupancy as it was a bond in a completely separate light from any other building. Comparing to the current price of bonds and treasuries, it seems to be an appealing investment.
This is an interesting twist. All the sudden, prices in real state have dramatically changed for property that is best to next to best. This causes a whole new array of issues. Level of occupancy or quality of is not a measure openly disclosed unless someone is actually buying. This will make it harder for someone to analyze markets that are not familiar with. This is maybe one of the best opportunities to actually value an intangible like a Brand like a daily index tick.
If it becomes a long term trend, it would be interesting to see "bond" prices decreasing on increasing depending on minor occupancy rates changes.
At the end, in markets with so much bad news across the board, it is just the need (maybe the experiment) of decisions based on more accurate data.
It feels like finally the application of deeper analytics across the board. By refining and re-defining segments, REITs might be looking deeper for correlations. It is an exciting change in an uncertain world from the usual location, location, location.
It seems that in the never ending search for new investment returns, they are looking at office buildings with high level of quality occupancy as it was a bond in a completely separate light from any other building. Comparing to the current price of bonds and treasuries, it seems to be an appealing investment.
This is an interesting twist. All the sudden, prices in real state have dramatically changed for property that is best to next to best. This causes a whole new array of issues. Level of occupancy or quality of is not a measure openly disclosed unless someone is actually buying. This will make it harder for someone to analyze markets that are not familiar with. This is maybe one of the best opportunities to actually value an intangible like a Brand like a daily index tick.
If it becomes a long term trend, it would be interesting to see "bond" prices decreasing on increasing depending on minor occupancy rates changes.
At the end, in markets with so much bad news across the board, it is just the need (maybe the experiment) of decisions based on more accurate data.
It feels like finally the application of deeper analytics across the board. By refining and re-defining segments, REITs might be looking deeper for correlations. It is an exciting change in an uncertain world from the usual location, location, location.
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