Undo the big short and take risk on mortgage bonds.
Bet on emergent currencies, and wait for a weaker euro just to accommodate smaller euro economies.
Bankruptcy is the best place for investments because the increased transparency. AA, MF Global, etc.
Soros, still the greatest macro guy in modern times.
Watch for a real slow down in China to track the ramifications.
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Thursday, February 23, 2012
What was the journey of the mortgage industry was our journey
Best put together list of the possible reasons of why the system failed to respond and react. Why in the world Economists and Finance gurus removed from the front line of trading failed to warn.
Traditional institutions failed.
IMF
From the center of the international monetary system, the IMF was sent to a peripheral position. Third world countries accumulated more reserves than the IMF budget. Commodities raised, so what need was there for the infamous IMF. They are trying to come back - the trillion dollar lady.
Traditional measures of market volatility should have registered some uptick as the aberrations began multiplying.
There was a reduction of volatility. Given the belief of the great moderation which a belief that the world's economies had entered a period of reduced fluctuations in economic and financial indicators.
VIX is wall street fear index, now covered daily by Melissa Lee's Fast Money - I wondered if it happened after this book was published-. It is the Chicago board options exchange volatility index. Measure of implied volatility based on the weighted average of prices for various options on a diversified basket of stocks.
Sustained moves in the vix carries important information about the extend of the uncertainty in the markets. A decline in vix would be accompanied by an increase in many investors willingness to assume risk.
VIX kept declining in an impressive fashion until the summer 2007. In other words, investors preferred to take more risks at a time of growing and simultaneous inconsistencies in the marketplace.
The same occurred for volatility in the fixed income and foreign exchange markets.
There another more general sign:
A notable increase in correlations among different asset classes in different geographies and different fundamental drivers.
And others.
Inspired by scribbles and notes from:
When markets collide
Even if Greenspan called it a statistical aberration, It had to take an Asperger's person in Michael Burry and a removed statistician working for Paulson to look beyond the indicators followed by the crowd.
Nothing a Carnegie Mellon process wouldn't catch.
Traditional institutions failed.
IMF
From the center of the international monetary system, the IMF was sent to a peripheral position. Third world countries accumulated more reserves than the IMF budget. Commodities raised, so what need was there for the infamous IMF. They are trying to come back - the trillion dollar lady.
Traditional measures of market volatility should have registered some uptick as the aberrations began multiplying.
There was a reduction of volatility. Given the belief of the great moderation which a belief that the world's economies had entered a period of reduced fluctuations in economic and financial indicators.
VIX is wall street fear index, now covered daily by Melissa Lee's Fast Money - I wondered if it happened after this book was published-. It is the Chicago board options exchange volatility index. Measure of implied volatility based on the weighted average of prices for various options on a diversified basket of stocks.
Sustained moves in the vix carries important information about the extend of the uncertainty in the markets. A decline in vix would be accompanied by an increase in many investors willingness to assume risk.
VIX kept declining in an impressive fashion until the summer 2007. In other words, investors preferred to take more risks at a time of growing and simultaneous inconsistencies in the marketplace.
The same occurred for volatility in the fixed income and foreign exchange markets.
There another more general sign:
A notable increase in correlations among different asset classes in different geographies and different fundamental drivers.
And others.
Inspired by scribbles and notes from:
When markets collide
Even if Greenspan called it a statistical aberration, It had to take an Asperger's person in Michael Burry and a removed statistician working for Paulson to look beyond the indicators followed by the crowd.
Nothing a Carnegie Mellon process wouldn't catch.
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Neuf Règles générales du marché
China owns 45% of the world supply of polysilicon used in the solar industry.
With prices for end products falling rapidly, a raise on demand, consolidation , or a technological breakthrough would bring some stability to the sector.
But that was the world of yesterday. The Chicago free market dogma woud have dictate a foreseen equilibrium, but it is today.
China largest producer will withhold production until prices raise 60%. The market forces are just indicators.
With prices for end products falling rapidly, a raise on demand, consolidation , or a technological breakthrough would bring some stability to the sector.
But that was the world of yesterday. The Chicago free market dogma woud have dictate a foreseen equilibrium, but it is today.
China largest producer will withhold production until prices raise 60%. The market forces are just indicators.
Friday, February 10, 2012
The old fashion banker is still priceless in today's world
There is no more clear sign that shows the old banker prestige hasn't been forgotten. Their nod is not like any other nod. Trained in the art of valuation and risk for generations, their nod is still the ACCURATE factoring of information in one instance.
And the markets haven't forgotten their role no matter how powerful conglomerates are.
Investors May Rethink Plan to Oust Rothschild at Bumi http://on.wsj.com/znLjiV #WSJ #iPhone
And the markets haven't forgotten their role no matter how powerful conglomerates are.
Investors May Rethink Plan to Oust Rothschild at Bumi http://on.wsj.com/znLjiV #WSJ #iPhone
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)