Sunday, March 25, 2012

Libor and the Circle

The manipulation of the Libor interest exchange rate, rings of "non-insider" insider trading, rings of cell phone hacking, an established Quattrone syndrome in the Valley of Silicone, gentlemen agreements in engineering circles overriding quality controls, and just out, puerto rican tax refunds going through an organized interception on the week of the NFL draft. Poor Griffin the Third, it is hard to go against those odds.

It was noise and incoherent appearances until now, but it is a noise that is starting to become a whistle. Once unknown to the many, it is becoming a symphony with each passing year: the voice of the wisdom of the crowds in an interconnected world.

Meanwhile corporations look desperately for innovation. Motor companies are opening labs in Silicon Valley hoping to harness creativity. Dell wakes up in the middle of the night with cold sweats. Japanese companies are slowly vanishing. Sony is seeing its previous aura in Apple while institutional investors want to cash out from Apple to avoid re-investments they never intended. Panasonic refocus its business to dishwashers. The circle in the financial industry ends up overriding the core businesses and the banker's reputation.

There are no tools to categorize and easily reference* the power of the circles. It seems the only defense businesses have is the esoteric solution of corporate culture and values. It is esoteric at the present time, but it becomes very palpable with every passing year. In this new world, only the ones who managed to keep the old ways, private, and established cultures might have a true chance to last.

The other true solution is accommodating global minds. Higher management is more and more: more international. The inherent value that can bring global minds together is the business, not the circle. A person Art is the hot sale. With the new wave of people who abstained from online interactions, I wonder if the new Art has to be conceived in an old fashion, archaic, unconnected brick and mortar mind.


*Delightful X Files Reference

Monday, March 19, 2012

Cash in the bank: 98 billion

OAAPL to pay dividend and to do a buyback. 100% return on the investment in the last 52 weeks is just not enough. The 52 week low was 300. Today's trading price: 600.

Microsoft found itself in the same junction back in 2004. With 50 billion in cash in the bank but a stale stock price, investors were screaming for some sort of return. Microsoft paid a one time dividend of 32 billion. This was probably the beginning of the split between Bill Gates and Microsoft. Bill Gates donated all his dividend to charity, and it probably led him to discover the impact he could have with charity instead of with Microsoft products.

AAPL has already been singled out as a tremendous anomaly requiring fund manager to exclude the stock from market analysis. With a growing stock price, a large dividend, increasing sales, and a buyback, it is hard to tell where it is going.

It is always the question of whether its product pipeline can continue propelling the momentum. The newest iPad seems to suffer from overheating. And even though the WSJ reports 55% of iPad users look to buy a second one to avoid sharing it within the family, it might be too soon for most users to replace their older model.

Then there are the other revenue streams which are too long to list. There is even 238 million from the profit sharing (18%) in the AppStore. 

On the other hand, a curious fact surfaced this week. Sharp was delayed in the delivery of components bringing light to the fact that Apple is forced to rely solely on Samsung which is a direct competitor. While Apple rearranges the marketplace, there is a stream of suppliers and competitors who are not standing still and are reshaping themselves at the same speed.

When we add all this, we get 98 billions in cash, and a string of future market changers to follow.