IMF projections

When asked why was she optimistic, the head of the IMF says:

There was a discussion between Rousseau and Voltaire who didn't get along.

Rousseau says:
- Life is hard.

Voltaire replies:
- Compared to what?

Everyone and the Other

For centuries business evolved looking to standardize itself. From the creation of currency trading in Northern Europe to Holland's stock markets in the 1600s to the birth of farm future contracts in Chicago.

Non-standard contracts make news when they are profitable like selling mortgages to the Amish or micro-finance.

And nowadays, the powerful machine of marketing and branding seems to override general accepted Truths built over centuries.

Customized contracts that have left clients and whole municipalities bankrupt have been the norm. The word liquidity was deleted as consideration when packaging the sale for special clients who deserved one on one undivided attention but end up buying sure losses.

It is like a plague of unlearning has hit the world in the last 10 years. All the sudden automated trading has been a middle man in the transactions even on the trading platforms that advertised it differently.

And now, even traders are blindsided because every party believes they are the other. They believe they are outside the system. This is a belief that has been built on the moment of sale. A believe that every buyer or seller is part of the inner circle; therefore, standardization doesn't apply to them.

And...the system is believing their own pitch by allowing this sense of insider grouping. Regulation can't rewire the system.

We are again on a cycle propelled by the networks. And no government or agency can track these "specialties."

The one-hour walk out of traders in Chicago is a sign that the system is contradictory. A customized large trade bypassed the trading floor without even posting prices. Either traders and real capitalism are a sign of the past, or the system is completely forgetting why it was built.

Quick Stat on the Lavish Life of the Black Gold

Saudi Arabia now consumes more oil than Germany which has three times the Saudi population. It is consuming a quarter of its own production. By 2040s, the Saudis will be a net importer...

Gorvachev held his ground on this point while discussing with the Iron Lady back in the 1980s: The world cannot consume at the same growth rate as developed countries; there are not enough resources. But Soviet inefficiency was as bad of a calamity as his opponents' capitalist consumption goals.

Alternative energy just stopped being "Green". It is It.

The $1,000 Mark

Newspapers are all over it. Can apple get to $1,000 a share? Even when trying to bite its tail two weeks ago, it was an already expensive $540. A lesson learned is that when a stock is taking off, do not buy limit orders, just buy it. Today's price: 628 and holding in that range. With a P/E of 17.50, it is not overly expensive.

Without even looking at financials, there are the risks of backlash from labor conditions, higher costs, dividends taking capital out, investments in negative return projects like TVs, the risk of becoming another cash hoarder, shrinking margins, and there is also the kindle fire with other competitors.

On the other hand, 30 millions iPads might be small compared to 5 billion people worldwide.

AAPL has become by itself a measure of technology in the world. It has become a predictor of supply chains, innovations, and global consumer confidence. Just with this, it is a must have in any portfolio.

Can AAPL break the 1,000 share "prize"?

AAPL will still capitalize on the residual business from its still fresh successful footprint. It has enough products to ride that wind. AAPL's consumers are happy to pay $200 for a replacement battery or phone that went bad. It is an unmatched sense of value following on the Toyota tradition where the notion of haggling is unthinkable.

What some analyst miss sometimes is that we live in a very small world. It is not so much how good a company is, but how good is it relative to the rest of the market. This will continue to attract positions from an international investor base. Without suffering a fluke or a competitor in shining armor, there is more than enough for the next couple years as it still becomes more mainstream.

The inexpensive road

Biotech stocks are loaded with high PE and the gamble of a big win.

Then there is the new phenomenon of finding new uses for already approved drugs.

With less capital requirements, they can do less testing with lower liability. Inspired by previous amazing findings from the blue pill to hair restoration, it seemed promising. But a small company hoping to find that rare accident is more of a gamble than a full FDA cycle with a known purpose.

But they are a niche for speculation having valuations swinging widely on short successes. Their almost random uptick makes them the perfect partner for a portfolio looking for short term not correlated assets in a correlated world.