Monday, July 30, 2012

The Best

As suspected, The Best Buy is looking for private equity to take Best Buy private. Now they can be free to do more while lifting the work and the risk associated with the expected steady and surely decline of store sales.

Sunday, July 29, 2012

The New System

The new "state" of the Union has been named by others. There are many people who have given it a shot. From idiological concepts to quick protest slogans, there is a line of analysts trying to describe the current state of affairs.

"Collusive Capitalism" is the best description yet. FASB doesn't have rules against it. Automation has overridden the classic notion of controls. We are left with a new system requiring new solutions.

Friday, July 27, 2012

Fedex vs. UPS

While most predictions have been pessimistic, there are a few industry leaders whose forecast does not depend on localized market conditions. And a few positive notes are starting to be heard.

Fedex predicts the US to grow faster than expected. UPS expects slower growth.

UPS is mostly business to business and retail which might be suffering the impact of the digital transformation. Every CD, Video, file, and mistake is easily downloadable and resolved nowadays with a digital connection.

Caterpillar is the tie breaker. The US's economy is growing. PIMCO sees the US as the most solid and stable market. There is less uncertainty in the US market than in the rest of the world even if the growth is minimal.

At the end, the fight for regulation and accepted accounting practices continues to prove it is absolutely necessary specially when nobody knows whose numbers to believe.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

The TIPs and the iceberg

TIPs go negative. The big boys are paying the US government to keep their money. Companies are being overvalued by selling small stakes at commanding prices. Only a stake could ask such a premium because more of it, and it starts to resemble the real world. This make company stakes behave like trenches (or is it tranches). A piece of the trench is acceptable; all the CDOs and it is a flip of the coin. There is abundance of capital, but deflation is peeking outside the cave while prices only increase where risks have been contained. It is the new world, the place where markets collide, and where the consistent split between the best and the next to best takes place. It is in this market like the following of the Great Depression where only the good shine. It is in this place where numbers stop meaning as much because the terrain is on the move and where the emotional connection to a discovery occurs. It is here where Truth is formed. It is in this place where Seabiscuit and the Soggy Bottom Boys flourished.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

IMF predictions

Waking up from its long sleep, the IMF is predicting that China will surpasse the US as the largest economy in four years.

You would think that doesn't make sense. Traditional GDP calculations convert GDP output to dollars. The IMF's calculation is based on purchasing power (without currency adjustment).

By this non-American standard, the US's GDP is 15 trillion while China's adds up 11 trillion with high reserves and ... "purchasing power". Still doesn't make much sense.

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Saturday, July 14, 2012

Another

Together with Michael Burry, and Paulson's statistician, she saw and educated everyone around about their mortgage business.

Without much refinement, she is known for speaking her mind. People could not believe she insisted in teaching powerful career bankers about their business. She was a history major after all.

She has suffered the political and Wall Street mob for her new prediction of municipalities in bankruptcy.

With San Bernardino declaring bankruptcy, and Buffet suggesting more are to come, Meredith Whitney has proven she is not a statistical aberration. But what is interesting is the fact that she could have come out ahead of everyone if she had just profited from her findings as it is her role instead of warning the market years in advance.

The Birth of Federalism

Even though game theory scenarios suggested the final showdown for the European Union is to take place between Italy and Germany, the are developments taking shape for a possible European government.

Italy's burden is too great for Germany to take on unless it benefits Germany at the same time. By breaking from the EU, Italy would gain a cheaper currency promoting growth. This might be the more probable showdown according to economists.

At the same time, the EU taking control of Spanish banks establishes the European government as the legitimate power overriding local governments.

This is just so similar to the history of the American Federal government that it makes it a possible precedent for an established European government for the good and bad.

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Morph

News keep getting extended. The news of yesterday ripples riding the days, the weeks, the months, and keep extending into the years.

Nothing is new, but everything is rarely more than 4 years old.

It has been almost 5 years since the financial meltdown, and the SEC is rushing to avoid the statute of limitation. Even the firms that survived are still imploding.

FASB is not just regulatory compliance; it is also the basis for sound investment and management. They are not made by democratic vote; they are made by experts targeting weaknesses in the system. If you don't follow the rules, at least you need to know the potholes, or you will end up discovering them.

The Libor, the banking crisis, the slowdown, the constant swapping of CEOs, the Arab world, patent wars, the EU, and the South China Sea.

An overlooked opinion had a catchy phrase: The world cannot afford endless litigation against banks.