Thursday, June 14, 2012

The Best

Best Buy owns Five Star which is an emerging China superstore with 200 locations so far. Five Star plans to open up to 500 stores based on the positive reinforcement of its sales.

Maybe it is time for Best Buy to become the Nike of the electronic Retail business. Design retail like restaurant chains, buy up - up coming players, and take them to The Level.

This is something that someone who raised through the ranks can't really draw on a map. It requires someone with acquisition talent.


Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Spain, Ah, Espan~a

It seems the 120 billion Spain requested from the Euro zone (meaning Germany), will probably be handed.

Given the strange configuration of the Euro zone, the money that is meant to bail out Spanish banks goes to the Spanish government first. There seems to be no legal binding for the Spanish government to use the money requested as prescribed by the doctor.

This is probably the real test for the post Cold War Europe. Either way, it will set a dramatic precedent for the next few decades.

Espana, ah, Espana! Are you still the back country of Lorca or the winner of the World Cup?

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Monday, June 11, 2012

Government Yard Sale

The US government is selling its stake in banks semi-nationalized during the financial crisis.

The number of banks is never clear until is time to sell. The stakes are parked in no less than 343 banks.

Geithner was nicknamed eHarmony during the turmoil due to his relentless matching and pairing of banks. It seems there was a lot more matching and nationalizing than was first disclosed.

Sunday, June 10, 2012

On the Week Before the Race

On the week before the Derby, APPL reports earnings.

And like music rehearsed over and over, negative reports come up exactly a week before as usual.

Carriers will be cutting subsidies from IPhones. There are insightful doubts on APPL's success given the market for smart phones is really in its infancy.
Godzilla is headed for Tokyo. RIMM is coming back opening stores in Indonesia.

We just have to wait and see whether the young Bodemister beats Dullahan, and whether the white silk of Hansen was just playing slow.

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In the tradition of behavior tied to a market bubble, there is no need to confirm the facts. There is no need to corroborate the announcement with the financial statements.

AAPL's profit increases 94%. 9 - nine -4 - four. In other words, ninety four percent. Did I spell that right? I am surprise there is space on this blog for that number.

Friday, June 8, 2012

Sovereign Perspective

The head of China's sovereign fund spoke of the risk of Europe's breakup as a real possibility.

He has the opposite perspective from Chanos. Lou Jiwei, like most, concentrates on international companies with a foot on China's growth.

Thursday, May 31, 2012

Zero

The zero coupon is back on the block. With yields being pushed towards zero, it is the closest thing to a saving account without the risk of depositing it in a bank.

The reason is simple: there is no place to invest. Even the dollar which was challenged, remains the denomination of choice because there are no other safe assets.

Newspapers have died because the hussle of the web is always connecting people through failed business models.

There are reports of companies eliminating the word innovation from their vocabulary because in reality most people don't know what it is. As soon as an innovating idea comes up anywhere is already a threat to the already established law of diminishing returns.

Spain is next, France is a rumor, and Germany is hesitant to serve anymore on the silver platter.

The country who was always the rescuer of last resort is unable to rescue other countries nor engage in any side of the world anymore.

China's slowdown is hitting the BRIC especially the B, the C, and Australia.

Now they call the future:
- The next 11
- The MIST
- The CIVEST

The M is Mexico. The I stands for Indonesia. The S is South Africa or South Korea. T is Turkey. What is different is that the R has dropped from everywhere which was usually reserved for Mother Russia. And many other predictions.

There is a theory that describes how the ups and down in history have an amazing correlation with 50 years intervals of innovation. This Kondratiev wave theory was correlated by others that matched it with technological revolutions.

The 50 years of innovation fueled unseen growth followed by 50 years of slow down or contraction. The slow growth phase was characterized by the implementation of the innovation from the previous 50-year cycle cannibalizing industries and squeezing margins from slow growth industries.

I came across this graph in the 1990s, and it placed history at that moment towards the end of the 50 year innovating cycle.

It has been the most accurate predictor of current times while everyone spoke of a self regulating financial industry that crashed, the promise of the web, and the rise of a global economy.


Saturday, May 26, 2012

TheFacebook.com

So many stories of legend come to mind when an IPO goes off the cliff. It brings back the old pools of pumping news and assurances while the Charleston plays and Prohibition offers the greatest of times.

But from 23 deals made since 2011, only 4 have seen a drop in price. In the other side of the counter, Citi, UBS, and e-Trade counting their missing beans offers beyond reasonable doubt, the idea that the technology glitch was a major dreams popper.

It is probable that the underwriters bought into the hype treating the market as an unexpected and unpredictable beast without realizing that in such a large offering, they are the voice of reason and the market maker. An 800 hundred pound gorilla has its name because it is singular in a plural world.

The warnings to major partners carried the same content that everyone already knew. It might not be a sign of asymmetrical information. I think it is a sign of asymmetrical perception of our own roles when failing to realize this is just not one more offering; this is The Offering.

This is one of those times when it would be so nice if the SEC could say after reminding the underwriters of their fiduciary duty to the offering and the public:
OK. Now, let's try that again: what is the price supposed to be?