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I am actually surprised 35% is.
Friday, May 17, 2013
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
SolChin
This is why when there is not enough information on a sector, the best course is to try to find the hedge among the players while staying away from the market leader. I like to call it insulated isolation. It has a classy ring to it. Insulated because if a disaster occur in the sector is probably going to hit the leader the most absorbing most of the negative swing. This is why CSUN was a better investment than SunTech. And SunTech has become the first Chinese default of a US listing.
Sunday, April 21, 2013
Sor
I had started this posting a few weeks back. Then, Soros passed away. I leave it unfinished.
"Soros looks for patterns of errors. He profits from calculating other people’s misinterpretations." from Brooks.
If I recall correctly it was breaking the bank of England based on a unsustainable pegged currency rate of the German Frank that led him to bet the house and make a billion in one trade. Later on, he would watched very closely Eastern European Communist countries and follow the ripple effect of their economies. At the same time, he flooded Hungary with printers and photocopy machines in a time when all printing material was closely controlled.
He became the greatest international philanthropist throughout his life reaching 350 millions in one year.
He is often cited as the top macro analyst of all times. I believe he was assigned the trucking sector early on in his career, and in no time he had consumed every detailed on what was considered an insignificant industry. But when M&A came knocking at the door, it made him a name for being the only expert around on such a niche sector.
And I always thought the Quantum fund had the greatest name of all.
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There is a drawback about being able to be on top of the news beat. Soros passing was a misprint. I leave it unfinished, Again, as it should.
"Soros looks for patterns of errors. He profits from calculating other people’s misinterpretations." from Brooks.
If I recall correctly it was breaking the bank of England based on a unsustainable pegged currency rate of the German Frank that led him to bet the house and make a billion in one trade. Later on, he would watched very closely Eastern European Communist countries and follow the ripple effect of their economies. At the same time, he flooded Hungary with printers and photocopy machines in a time when all printing material was closely controlled.
He became the greatest international philanthropist throughout his life reaching 350 millions in one year.
He is often cited as the top macro analyst of all times. I believe he was assigned the trucking sector early on in his career, and in no time he had consumed every detailed on what was considered an insignificant industry. But when M&A came knocking at the door, it made him a name for being the only expert around on such a niche sector.
And I always thought the Quantum fund had the greatest name of all.
-----
There is a drawback about being able to be on top of the news beat. Soros passing was a misprint. I leave it unfinished, Again, as it should.
Friday, March 29, 2013
Ben's legacy
The legacy of Bernanke is on the making every single month that passes. His most influential trait is probably that he has become a man of his time. Bernanke has opened up the Fed's decision making to the public discourse.
His new speeches are on a new book, and for a change, they seem to be a lot more fun to read than his essays on the Great Depression. It almost seems like the Fed is going through the same process the Catholic church went through a few years back when they started to review their own history publishing their past stances.
Bernanke has been painting the new view of recent events like defending the low interest rates against the guilt of the financial collapse by providing a better explanation based on the flow of massive capital from raising powers.
Where does the road goes from here? The main point of discussion is still the question on the Fed's role and on whether the Fed has been or is effective enough to become the new planner. One thing that everyone seems to miss is the fact that this is 2013 in the middle of a global multi-polar world. One has to wonder if the new research based on past decades of economic data apply to today's world or even to the immediate future.
Without any sure findings, the only course to follow is the academic discourse of ideas, and the one that has been there, and the one who is opening this new path is Ben. When there are no answers, it reminds me of when the crisis of 1909 surprised and panicked every banker, and J. P. Morgan's assistant asked him: Why don't you just tell them what to do?
J.P.Morgan replied for first time ending his assistant calm demeanor:
"Because I don't know. But one of them will have an answer; then, I will tell them."
His new speeches are on a new book, and for a change, they seem to be a lot more fun to read than his essays on the Great Depression. It almost seems like the Fed is going through the same process the Catholic church went through a few years back when they started to review their own history publishing their past stances.
Bernanke has been painting the new view of recent events like defending the low interest rates against the guilt of the financial collapse by providing a better explanation based on the flow of massive capital from raising powers.
Where does the road goes from here? The main point of discussion is still the question on the Fed's role and on whether the Fed has been or is effective enough to become the new planner. One thing that everyone seems to miss is the fact that this is 2013 in the middle of a global multi-polar world. One has to wonder if the new research based on past decades of economic data apply to today's world or even to the immediate future.
Without any sure findings, the only course to follow is the academic discourse of ideas, and the one that has been there, and the one who is opening this new path is Ben. When there are no answers, it reminds me of when the crisis of 1909 surprised and panicked every banker, and J. P. Morgan's assistant asked him: Why don't you just tell them what to do?
J.P.Morgan replied for first time ending his assistant calm demeanor:
"Because I don't know. But one of them will have an answer; then, I will tell them."
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Monday, March 4, 2013
Haute Russ
With 85% of its economy depending on exporting commodities, the Russian economy desperately needs to diversify.
And all the sudden, every commodity oligarch sold their major stakes in commodities, and now they are looking to start new lives in other industries.
There is something to say about the efficiency of an autocratic rule. It is pretty much the same as to Paulson's interaction with the banking industry.
And all the sudden, every commodity oligarch sold their major stakes in commodities, and now they are looking to start new lives in other industries.
There is something to say about the efficiency of an autocratic rule. It is pretty much the same as to Paulson's interaction with the banking industry.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Always Darker Before The Dawn (depending on where you are)
A few months back, the mantel of pessimism was starting to creep up the stairs. Hedge Fund Managers, politicians, The Euro Zone, the Arab upheaval, the banking crisis, Greece, and the housing market. Recession was called upon to give its blessing once again.
The current indicators were raising the flag of a shift instead of another slowdown. Macro observers have pointed at this phenomenon for the last few years. The BRIC have been suffering a slowdown in GDP growth even though they were the engine that dragged the economy out of the crisis.
Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets predicts it is in places like Indonesia, Philippines, and Nigeria that growth have been outpacing the usual engines. But these markets are not sufficient to propel the world economy one penny.
Among others: Czech Republic, South Korea, Turkey, Poland and Thailand.
There seems to be a new dawn with the US housing market finally up and walking together with the European Union stumbling along after containing and "Regionalizing" Spanish banks. But the American dream is still referred to as "In Peril".
The current indicators were raising the flag of a shift instead of another slowdown. Macro observers have pointed at this phenomenon for the last few years. The BRIC have been suffering a slowdown in GDP growth even though they were the engine that dragged the economy out of the crisis.
Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets predicts it is in places like Indonesia, Philippines, and Nigeria that growth have been outpacing the usual engines. But these markets are not sufficient to propel the world economy one penny.
Among others: Czech Republic, South Korea, Turkey, Poland and Thailand.
There seems to be a new dawn with the US housing market finally up and walking together with the European Union stumbling along after containing and "Regionalizing" Spanish banks. But the American dream is still referred to as "In Peril".
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