Friday, October 22, 2010

The China that will be in spite of

There has been somber predictions and dangers from the Chinese growth. Inequality between the country and the city, unrest of farmers, ecological problems, disillusion in the communist party. However, it seems the financial crisis has strengthen the country's belief in its leadership.

Talking about numbers about China is just mind blowing. In 2007, China had already 460 million cell phone users. Maybe it is not that impressive.

But for example, every US phone user pays a tax to subsidy poor income bracket' phone usage. Economical studies have proven that a cell phone to a low level income bracket person is one of the most effective ways to increase its ability to generate economical activity. In the last two years, those subsidies have been put into practice, and poor income bracket's consumers have been getting a free cell phone and service paid by the US government.

If it has been proven by the numbers in the US, just imagine the multiplier effect of 460 million cell phones users in China.

Now, with all the risks and threats of China's growth, there is one figure that is really extraordinary. Its consequences are unimaginable. Avoiding a natural disaster which doesn't seem to stop China like the Earthquake, these figures just show the incredible potential for indefinite growth.

The US has 9 cities with population of over 1 million people. China has 300 cities with populations of over 1 million people counting the migrant workers (200 mill) which I don't think are included in the figures (they are still asking for equal rights, so they are not even counted yet). High speed trains will interconnect these 300 cities in the near future. They go from 1 million to a city like Shanghai with over 18 million.

The possible combinations of 300 cities interconnected with such high populations are unimaginable. It is like a mini Earth. The future products developed to supply this demand, and the mini ecologies of demand, supply, tourism, population movement, and services could easily beat any expectations. The number of permutations of this amount of people interconnected and with economical freedom will render any focus groups in the US meaningless because its consequences are just almost impossible to foresee. This is assuming China's individuals continue to gain economical freedom and "adequate" legal commercial rights.

All these cities have budgets and are landscaping, planning, building and creating services. They just don't have any other choice. There has been a migration of 200 to 300 million people into these cities. If that is not a train of growth, I don't know what it is. They are graduating and creating mini countries onto themselves.

I believe it was Philips which sold around $200 million in city lights in one year. Almost every important architect has been hired to work in one of these cities. It is true that it might be an artificial demand for now fueled by city budgets competing among each other about who has the best city hall, but this has always been the beginning of cities. Five hundred years ago, the church and the plaza identified a city. Then a city was the one that had a post office. Then it is the constant fight for which has the tallest building.

China with its three hundred cities of this magnitude with every major corporation present, 200 million migrant workers, erecting streets, city lights, fire houses, city halls, trade surplus with Europe and the US, political stability, economical freedom supported by their government, and inter-connecting themselves at the speed of a bullet train at the same time of entering the information and Internet age is at least the most clear indication of future economical growth I have ever heard.