Monday, November 15, 2010

The compatibility of the missing science

Isn't this a clear sign that it might be time to change the current metrics used for policy.

If things are not working, it might be time to step back and make sure that what you saw painted on the Monet was a building. The same applies to policy makers. Maybe it is time to take a couple step back and look again to see what data they are following.

The deepest financial crisis. The government over spending which probably has let things roll longer. The head of the budget bureau saying we are tapped. There is not lending happening. US production is overseas. And some of the opinions in the Federal Reserve is that no market works on the current zero percent lending rate. What it really means is that things are not working now or they are about to stop working unless things get a bit harder.

Another study challenged the idea of the US ingenuity and creativity. It mentions how the majority of US force is not engaged on their work compared with previous research.

90% of the engineers and Computer Scientists will be working in Asia in the near future given the rate of foreign workers returning to their countries. This gets compounded with the graduation rate of computer scientists and engineers that graduate in the US which is 14% of the total of computer scientist and engineers that graduate every year in India and China (Even most of US graduates in computer science are foreigners).

We might just be in a transition period. There are new promising fields rising, and they might be the new propulsion engines. But still...

"Cheap dollar won't help US exports because US companies are mainly producing overseas."

There is something totally inverted about that sentence. Decades of economical thought might be rendered useless like a curtain at the end of a show when the lights go out.

Is the US stock market a reflection of the production overseas making us think it is the US industrial power? Has the time arrived when the Dow ends to mean what is supposed to? In a global economy, the meaning of the index of the largest American companies might stop representing the "American" locality leaving us following the wrong metrics.

Is the happiness of TARP being repaid making us think it was a good investment while the funds were generated outside US borders?

Things are changing. What used to work is not working. The characteristics of pre-emergent economies are showing up in the largest economy of all. It is like the IMF lending to Guatemala or Nicaragua to build infrastructure without hope of production or exports in spite of their depreciated currencies (The cigars did get really good. I am still looking for the Nicaraguan Hoja Cubana that disappeared. Maybe someone just had a good batch they had to get ride of at a discount). Anyways, coming back, regressing to the spontaneity of the absurd...

Time to come up with new science or science will be written of us.