Friday, December 10, 2010

The possible and the impossible one

China's future risks lie in the empowering of the population of these cities. If we see them like a swarm of people buying and selling, and investing capital, the consequences are extraordinary while everyone keeps watching for the macro risks.

However, empowering at this lower level cities is uncertain because implementation of rights occur in societies through courts, contract law, and law enforcement to protect the decision of the legislation and the rights of the individuals all the way to the bottom. People talk about China as an experiment. Nobody has been able to do democracy with a billion people. Even the US had to have the notion of state independence from the Federal government. It was probably the factor that allowed the Union to survive all the ups and down suffering the threat of separation.

Russia always had a more promising future than China. It was the second power in the world. It always had the highest level of engineers, scientists, and resources. Tetris was invented by a Russian for God's Sake! What would we have done without it?

And every time Russia enters the world stage, the local politics override all rights of the population and their "free agents". Sales of Vodka are some of the most profitable for small businesses. Then all the sudden in smaller communities vodka is prohibited to be sold until further notice. Local businesses and stores in shambles in a couple weeks. The details and the consequences of the arrest of oil moguls are just a serious warning to everyone else. What is interesting is that Russia might be after all more isolated and unique culturally plus more economically self-sufficient than China. China does have a party and factions and depends on Europe and the US for technology, education, and China is part of Asia. Russia still has the personification of political power in one person, it has all the brain power it can, and it is part of...itself.

Free societies become commercial powerhouse because nobody knows for sure who is the right person or who has the right idea. The whole idea of a capitalist system is the fact that the market chooses, not political representatives, not judges, not your competitors, and not even your peers. This is why a capitalist society can only flourish with empowerment and without discrimination.

In order for these three hundred cities to spawn indefinite economical growth, there has to be freedom of choosing or as until now, western business that hold more rights to create and lobby than Chinese individuals.

As a note of hope, China has been introducing non-communist party members to the Central Committee. But it seems it is always so easy to revert back. The whole world watches China every elections, every crisis to see who will win in the inside and what actions will be taken. It would be nice to know the point of no return, and these three hundred cities will be for sure the future.